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View Poll Results: How Many Games Do We Win in 2012?

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  • 7 or Less

    2 1.98%
  • 8

    8 7.92%
  • 9

    26 25.74%
  • 10

    32 31.68%
  • 11

    22 21.78%
  • 12+

    11 10.89%
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Thread: How Many Games Do We Win?

  1. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShortSideOption View Post
    Because the over under is going to be set at 9 in Vegas, which means Vegas thinks we are going to have 9 wins. He said he was a realist with his 7 win prediction. What's hard for you to understand about me making him put his money where his mouth is? For a guy that claims to be a professional gambler, you would think you know how this works?

    I mean, you're not seriously saying that he projects 7 or 8 so I should give him more than that should I? Again, does Vegas say, "they are going to have 8 or 9 wins this year, so we will set the over under at 9.5?" That defies every piece of logic that goes along with gambling.

    So, to be fair, keep your posts out of places they don't belong before the posts get smashed...
    For crying out loud, he says they could win 8 and at worst 7, so you offer him 7? Some sport, you are spouting off like you are a gambler--more like a thief. You want to bet the man you have to offer him better than 8, that's how proposition bets work, sonny. Why would he ever take worse than the Vegas line? To get the great opportunity to bet YOU? LOL. You propositioned him, do it like a man, give him a real offer.

    PS--you couldn't smash a bug.

  2. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    "7 wins" was one of the options in the poll, for chrissakes. If my electing it, and having the courtesy to explain why by listing the games I thought NU could lose, generates such personal disdain from small minded posters, why is that even a choice in the poll?
    You miss my point Mr. Wizard. I take issue with the following kinds of snide little digs which exude arrogance and imply ignorance of "you guys" -------- as well as the bold above, which just flat out calls us small minded posters. It is those innuendos that show your general disdain for us (Husker fans in general) that intrigues me.

    P.S. I feel like I've had this same conversation with someone or another on this board about this time of year for each of the last three or four years. I will grant you guys one thing ... you are certainly eternal optimists! Not very good prognosticators, but certainly optimistic!
    I could care less what your predictions of our football team are. My intuition tells me that you would revel in an outcome of 0-12 because that is what we arrogant, small minded, kool-aid drinking, hillbilly folks on this board really deserve.

  3. #83
    Hey now, I may be arrogant, small-minded, and a kool-aid drinker, but...um...you know what, never mind.

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pop Corn View Post
    You miss my point Mr. Wizard. I take issue with the following kinds of snide little digs which exude arrogance and imply ignorance of "you guys" -------- as well as the bold above, which just flat out calls us small minded posters. It is those innuendos that show your general disdain for us (Husker fans in general) that intrigues me.

    I could care less what your predictions of our football team are. My intuition tells me that you would revel in an outcome of 0-12 because that is what we arrogant, small minded, kool-aid drinking, hillbilly folks on this board really deserve.
    No. I like almost everyone on here. Just not the few who personally attack me for choosing an offered poll answer that for some strange, but sad, reason personally offends them.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  5. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    Jealous haters who troll other teams' fan sites because there aren't enough fans who care enough about their favorite teams to put together worthwhile message boards.
    And just what, pray tell, do you believe you personally have going for you that you think I would be jealous of?
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    And just what, pray tell, do you believe you personally have going for you that you think I would be jealous of?
    I didn't say it was personal. Why would you go there? Interesting.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    I didn't say it was personal. Why would you go there? Interesting.
    Then to what were you referring of which I am jealous? - and, per your quoted post above, it is something that you don't have going for you, either. I am just giddy with anticipation.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  8. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    No. I like almost everyone on here. Just not the few who personally attack me for choosing an offered poll answer that for some strange, but sad, reason personally offends them.
    I guess that implies I am a liar too, right?

  9. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    Then to what were you referring of which I am jealous? - and, per your quoted post above, it is something that you don't have going for you, either. I am just giddy with anticipation.
    I'm going to let you figure it out. After all, you're the one obsessed with trolling another team's message board. Why is that?

  10. #90
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    I'm going to let you figure it out. After all, you're the one obsessed with trolling another team's message board. Why is that?
    I didn't think you'd be able to come up with anything I am jealous of.

    Should we work on what you said I am a hater of next?
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pop Corn View Post
    I guess that implies I am a liar too, right?
    Nope. Not my intent. I don't think you are. Sorry if you got that impression.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  12. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    No. I like almost everyone on here. Just not the few who personally attack me for choosing an offered poll answer that for some strange, but sad, reason personally offends them.
    Please indicate anywhere in this thread that I said or implied that your poll option offends me. I have specifically stated/inferred it has no bearing on the reason I am perplexed. I cited specific items that appear to follow your apparent agenda on this BBS. Yet you seem to insist that I have "personally attacked" you because you think badly of the football team. That simply is not true!

    I will say it one more time to be perfectly clear. I do not care what you think of the Huskers nor do I care what you predict. The issue, if you read my posts carefully is the carefully engineered swipes and digs you make at Husker fans in general. That seems to be a consistent trait that more often than not, appears sprinkled throughout your communications. That is nothing more, IMHO, than trolling. So if my posts are "personal attacks", they are simply in response to what you are fishing for.

    Oh, one more thing. I am not offended that you don't like me either. Have a good day.

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pop Corn View Post
    Please indicate anywhere in this thread that I said or implied that your poll option offends me. I have specifically stated/inferred it has no bearing on the reason I am perplexed. I cited specific items that appear to follow your apparent agenda on this BBS. Yet you seem to insist that I have "personally attacked" you because you think badly of the football team. That simply is not true!

    I will say it one more time to be perfectly clear. I do not care what you think of the Huskers nor do I care what you predict. The issue, if you read my posts carefully is the carefully engineered swipes and digs you make at Husker fans in general. That seems to be a consistent trait that more often than not, appears sprinkled throughout your communications. That is nothing more, IMHO, than trolling. So if my posts are "personal attacks", they are simply in response to what you are fishing for.

    Oh, one more thing. I am not offended that you don't like me either. Have a good day.
    Please tell me, so I can learn, how my prediction of a 7 or 8 win season "is a poke in the eye with a sharp stick ... again" to anybody. Did you feel like I poked you in the eye with a sharp stick? If not you, then whom? My post was just my opinion, and I outlined the basis for it on a game by game basis for the Huskers' toughest games. So that makes you want to say I am "condescending"? Saying that doesn't really offend me, so it's not that big of a deal, but looking at it objectively it certainly could be considered to be a personal attack when I simply was following the thread lead and making at least a supportable prediction. If you read more into my initial post than that, then the problem is yours, not mine.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    I didn't think you'd be able to come up with anything I am jealous of.

    Should we work on what you said I am a hater of next?
    What a skillful dodge of my question.

  15. #95
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    Based on my model, NU SHOULD have won 6 BCS games + Chattanooga. We were, by my math, one of the most over-achieving teams in the BCS last year in terms of expected wins vs actual wins. Statisticians would call this variability. Normal fans call it luck.

    Every season is different, but IMO it's unlikely that NU will be able to overachieve in this way again. If NU is going to get to 9 or more wins this year, it MUST play significantly better than it did last year.

    I'm going with 8 wins on the season. 7 on the low end, 9 on the high end.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post
    Based on my model, NU SHOULD have won 6 BCS games + Chattanooga. We were, by my math, one of the most over-achieving teams in the BCS last year in terms of expected wins vs actual wins. Statisticians would call this variability. Normal fans call it luck.

    Every season is different, but IMO it's unlikely that NU will be able to overachieve in this way again. If NU is going to get to 9 or more wins this year, it MUST play significantly better than it did last year.

    I'm going with 8 wins on the season. 7 on the low end, 9 on the high end.
    Didn't your model predict a win vs Michigan? Just giving you some grief. I like your posts quite a bit.

  17. #97
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    Typical drivel

    Wisconsin - Free Agent QB, home game, NU will probably be favored...
    @OSU - toss up game...
    Michigan - home game
    @MSU - we killed them last year...



    @Northwestern - NU will be a heavy favorite.
    @Iowa -

    Methinks all the time you spend at Boulder's dispensaries has warped your brain...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    7-5

    No one on here over the last three seasons has predicted NU losing anywhere close to 12 games in their pre-season predictions, except me. I've probably got a five or six game lead over the next closest competitor over that period.

    NU has a greater than 50/50 chance to lose the following games this upcoming season:

    Wisconsin
    @OSU
    Michigan
    @MSU

    NU has only a 50/50 chance to win the following games:

    @Northwestern
    @Iowa

    8-4 is probably more likely than 7-5, but others had already gone with 8-4, so I'm taking 7-5 so that I don't have to split the prize money with anyone.

  18. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by the fountainhead View Post
    Typical drivel

    Wisconsin - Free Agent QB, home game, NU will probably be favored...
    @OSU - toss up game...
    Michigan - home game
    @MSU - we killed them last year...



    @Northwestern - NU will be a heavy favorite.
    @Iowa -

    Methinks all the time you spend at Boulder's dispensaries has warped your brain...
    The thing with the drivel is that there is actually some data that supports 8-4 or 7-5. 10-2 is underwritten largely by hope.

  19. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post

    The thing with the drivel is that there is actually some data that supports 8-4 or 7-5. 10-2 is underwritten largely by hope.
    I think your model is flawed. As most people understand, statistics rarely tell the whole story. Tommie Frazier isn't considered to be one of the best QBs of all time because of eye-popping stats. The game is about much more than numbers.

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    I think your model is flawed. As most people understand, statistics rarely tell the whole story. Tommie Frazier isn't considered to be one of the best QBs of all time because of eye-popping stats. The game is about much more than numbers.
    All models are wrong. Some are useful.

    My particular one accurately retro-dicted almost 80% of the games in the BCS correctly last year, and determined rankings 1-120 that averaged less than .2 standard deviations from the average ranking of the Massey Composite Rankings. I'm highly confident that my methodology is solid.

    I agree that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they tell a great deal of it. Like I posted above, NU overachieved in the W column according to my methodology. The statistics didn't tell that part of the story.

    But in the same way that the house will always come out ahead in Vegas in the aggregate, the numbers will eventually catch up to every football team. It may be this year, or it may be next year, but if NU continues to underperform statistically, that underformance will eventually turn Ws into Ls.

    Have you seen the movie "Moneyball"? Your comment above reminds me a lot of the scouts sitting around the table discussing players.


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