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View Poll Results: How Many Games Do We Win in 2012?

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  • 7 or Less

    2 1.98%
  • 8

    8 7.92%
  • 9

    26 25.74%
  • 10

    32 31.68%
  • 11

    22 21.78%
  • 12+

    11 10.89%
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Thread: How Many Games Do We Win?

  1. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pop Corn View Post
    I guess that implies I am a liar too, right?
    Nope. Not my intent. I don't think you are. Sorry if you got that impression.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  2. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    No. I like almost everyone on here. Just not the few who personally attack me for choosing an offered poll answer that for some strange, but sad, reason personally offends them.
    Please indicate anywhere in this thread that I said or implied that your poll option offends me. I have specifically stated/inferred it has no bearing on the reason I am perplexed. I cited specific items that appear to follow your apparent agenda on this BBS. Yet you seem to insist that I have "personally attacked" you because you think badly of the football team. That simply is not true!

    I will say it one more time to be perfectly clear. I do not care what you think of the Huskers nor do I care what you predict. The issue, if you read my posts carefully is the carefully engineered swipes and digs you make at Husker fans in general. That seems to be a consistent trait that more often than not, appears sprinkled throughout your communications. That is nothing more, IMHO, than trolling. So if my posts are "personal attacks", they are simply in response to what you are fishing for.

    Oh, one more thing. I am not offended that you don't like me either. Have a good day.

  3. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pop Corn View Post
    Please indicate anywhere in this thread that I said or implied that your poll option offends me. I have specifically stated/inferred it has no bearing on the reason I am perplexed. I cited specific items that appear to follow your apparent agenda on this BBS. Yet you seem to insist that I have "personally attacked" you because you think badly of the football team. That simply is not true!

    I will say it one more time to be perfectly clear. I do not care what you think of the Huskers nor do I care what you predict. The issue, if you read my posts carefully is the carefully engineered swipes and digs you make at Husker fans in general. That seems to be a consistent trait that more often than not, appears sprinkled throughout your communications. That is nothing more, IMHO, than trolling. So if my posts are "personal attacks", they are simply in response to what you are fishing for.

    Oh, one more thing. I am not offended that you don't like me either. Have a good day.
    Please tell me, so I can learn, how my prediction of a 7 or 8 win season "is a poke in the eye with a sharp stick ... again" to anybody. Did you feel like I poked you in the eye with a sharp stick? If not you, then whom? My post was just my opinion, and I outlined the basis for it on a game by game basis for the Huskers' toughest games. So that makes you want to say I am "condescending"? Saying that doesn't really offend me, so it's not that big of a deal, but looking at it objectively it certainly could be considered to be a personal attack when I simply was following the thread lead and making at least a supportable prediction. If you read more into my initial post than that, then the problem is yours, not mine.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    I didn't think you'd be able to come up with anything I am jealous of.

    Should we work on what you said I am a hater of next?
    What a skillful dodge of my question.

  5. #95
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    Based on my model, NU SHOULD have won 6 BCS games + Chattanooga. We were, by my math, one of the most over-achieving teams in the BCS last year in terms of expected wins vs actual wins. Statisticians would call this variability. Normal fans call it luck.

    Every season is different, but IMO it's unlikely that NU will be able to overachieve in this way again. If NU is going to get to 9 or more wins this year, it MUST play significantly better than it did last year.

    I'm going with 8 wins on the season. 7 on the low end, 9 on the high end.

  6. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post
    Based on my model, NU SHOULD have won 6 BCS games + Chattanooga. We were, by my math, one of the most over-achieving teams in the BCS last year in terms of expected wins vs actual wins. Statisticians would call this variability. Normal fans call it luck.

    Every season is different, but IMO it's unlikely that NU will be able to overachieve in this way again. If NU is going to get to 9 or more wins this year, it MUST play significantly better than it did last year.

    I'm going with 8 wins on the season. 7 on the low end, 9 on the high end.
    Didn't your model predict a win vs Michigan? Just giving you some grief. I like your posts quite a bit.

  7. #97
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    Typical drivel

    Wisconsin - Free Agent QB, home game, NU will probably be favored...
    @OSU - toss up game...
    Michigan - home game
    @MSU - we killed them last year...



    @Northwestern - NU will be a heavy favorite.
    @Iowa -

    Methinks all the time you spend at Boulder's dispensaries has warped your brain...


    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    7-5

    No one on here over the last three seasons has predicted NU losing anywhere close to 12 games in their pre-season predictions, except me. I've probably got a five or six game lead over the next closest competitor over that period.

    NU has a greater than 50/50 chance to lose the following games this upcoming season:

    Wisconsin
    @OSU
    Michigan
    @MSU

    NU has only a 50/50 chance to win the following games:

    @Northwestern
    @Iowa

    8-4 is probably more likely than 7-5, but others had already gone with 8-4, so I'm taking 7-5 so that I don't have to split the prize money with anyone.
    Just Sayin'

  8. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by the fountainhead View Post
    Typical drivel

    Wisconsin - Free Agent QB, home game, NU will probably be favored...
    @OSU - toss up game...
    Michigan - home game
    @MSU - we killed them last year...



    @Northwestern - NU will be a heavy favorite.
    @Iowa -

    Methinks all the time you spend at Boulder's dispensaries has warped your brain...
    The thing with the drivel is that there is actually some data that supports 8-4 or 7-5. 10-2 is underwritten largely by hope.

  9. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post

    The thing with the drivel is that there is actually some data that supports 8-4 or 7-5. 10-2 is underwritten largely by hope.
    I think your model is flawed. As most people understand, statistics rarely tell the whole story. Tommie Frazier isn't considered to be one of the best QBs of all time because of eye-popping stats. The game is about much more than numbers.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by huskrthill View Post
    I think your model is flawed. As most people understand, statistics rarely tell the whole story. Tommie Frazier isn't considered to be one of the best QBs of all time because of eye-popping stats. The game is about much more than numbers.
    All models are wrong. Some are useful.

    My particular one accurately retro-dicted almost 80% of the games in the BCS correctly last year, and determined rankings 1-120 that averaged less than .2 standard deviations from the average ranking of the Massey Composite Rankings. I'm highly confident that my methodology is solid.

    I agree that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they tell a great deal of it. Like I posted above, NU overachieved in the W column according to my methodology. The statistics didn't tell that part of the story.

    But in the same way that the house will always come out ahead in Vegas in the aggregate, the numbers will eventually catch up to every football team. It may be this year, or it may be next year, but if NU continues to underperform statistically, that underformance will eventually turn Ws into Ls.

    Have you seen the movie "Moneyball"? Your comment above reminds me a lot of the scouts sitting around the table discussing players.

  11. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    "7 wins" was one of the options in the poll, for chrissakes. If my electing it, and having the courtesy to explain why by listing the games I thought NU could lose, generates such personal disdain from small minded posters, why is that even a choice in the poll?

    Hey now why you gettin all up in my kool aid!! 8-4 7-5 is about where Id put em as well. Same QB, same coach = same results or worse.


    I cannot be bought, compromised, detoured, lured away, turned back, deluded, or delayed. I will not flinch in the face of sacrifice, hesitate in the presence of adversity, negotiate at the table of the enemy, ponder at the pool of popularity, or meander in the maze of mediocrity.I wont give up, shut up, let up, until I have stayed up, stored up, prayed up, paid up, and showed up for all wounded children.

  12. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by the fountainhead View Post
    Typical drivel

    Wisconsin - Free Agent QB, home game, NU will probably be favored... Wisky killed NU last year (see your @MSU logic below)
    @OSU - toss up game... 1. OSU year in and out has about as much talent as any team in the country - consistently out-recruiting NU by a wide margin; 2. OSU's head coach is far more experienced and far more successful; 3. OSU has as big a home field advantage as there is in the sport; 4. OSU will be nothing less than a prohibitive favorite; 5. Your belief that OSU v NU will be a toss up is so widely off base that it completely discredits your entire post;
    Michigan - home game UM killed NU last year (see your @MSU logic below)
    @MSU - we killed them last year... a one way street, I see.



    @Northwestern - NU will be a heavy favorite. Once again, inconsistent with "@MSU" above
    @Iowa -

    Methinks all the time you spend at Boulder's dispensaries has warped your brain... Probably the most credible aspect of your post, even though I've only been to a dispensary once. The aromas alone, however, were probably enough to (further) warp my brain, as you suggested.
    See above.

    I appreciate your taking time to respond on a game by game basis. However, as a former Advocacy professor said once to our class: "Rule number one when arguing a position: at all times be internally consistent or be prepared to be blown out of the water." Rather than blow you out of the water, I chose merely to send a warning shot across your bow.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  13. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pops View Post
    Hey now why you gettin all up in my kool aid!! 8-4 7-5 is about where Id put em as well. Same QB, same coach = same results or worse.
    "Those mothers would rather see the country go down in flames than let the times change."

    -- Samuel L. Jackson

  14. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by Cardinal View Post
    See above.

    I appreciate your taking time to respond on a game by game basis. However, as a former Advocacy professor said once to our class: "Rule number one when arguing a position: at all times be internally consistent or be prepared to be blown out of the water." Rather than blow you out of the water, I chose merely to send a warning shot across your bow.
    I will only give cardinal one point that I agree with, and that is I do not see how on gods green earth the huskers beat Ohio state, let alone at Ohio state.

    The other thing is, football isn't some random games played in a vacuum. It's a campaign, and I don't think anybody has enough knowledge of Wisconsin or Nebraska to predict that winner yet.

    I say the old wishbone pull is Wisconsin. Win that and it's a good year. Lose that one and it's gonna be long.

    If there was a forward facing algorithm beyond coaching I dont know of it. It will be fun either way, hopefully we get to tell cardinal how smart we are. I suspect we will hear all about how smart cardinal is either way.

    In closing, I predict Taylor Martinez and burkhead combine for eleventy thousand yards and 800 points this year.

  15. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by Queso View Post
    All models are wrong. Some are useful.

    My particular one accurately retro-dicted almost 80% of the games in the BCS correctly last year, and determined rankings 1-120 that averaged less than .2 standard deviations from the average ranking of the Massey Composite Rankings. I'm highly confident that my methodology is solid.

    I agree that statistics don't tell the whole story, but they tell a great deal of it. Like I posted above, NU overachieved in the W column according to my methodology. The statistics didn't tell that part of the story.

    But in the same way that the house will always come out ahead in Vegas in the aggregate, the numbers will eventually catch up to every football team. It may be this year, or it may be next year, but if NU continues to underperform statistically, that underformance will eventually turn Ws into Ls.

    Have you seen the movie "Moneyball"? Your comment above reminds me a lot of the scouts sitting around the table discussing players.
    Have you ever posted a thorough explanation of your model on here? If so I'd be interested in reading about it.







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