So The Weather Channel (TWC) gave Lincoln a TOR:CON 9 on 04/15/2012 (Spring Game Saturday). I'll be honest, the first time I heard this, I had no idea what it meant, but I had a good idea what TOR and CON stood for. I just didn't know the parameters. So then TWC explained that this is the x/10 chance (9/10 for Lincoln) that a tornado would hit within a 50 mile radius of the area. While that sounds sexy, if you do the math, it seems like TWC is really trying to promote a stat builder and create hype. Where does Lincoln end on the east side? Is it 84th? So if we start the 50 mile radius from 84th, that will even encompass the west edge of Omaha and reach up into Fremont, and points south and west. Plus, this is only a radius, so we are talking about a 100 mile swath of land covered by this TOR:CON.
Or, is the point of the radius on the west end, like mile marker 395 (or pick one, I don't care). So that shifts it to the west by 10 miles or so. Or is the focal point the center of Lincoln? And we aren't even getting into the north/south of the issue. At any rate, assuming a 10 mile by 10 mile square city (is Lincoln close to that?), that gives the weather guessers ultimately a 110 mile diameter area to say there is a 90% chance for a tornado for the Lincoln area. Imagine the margin of error for a metro area like Omaha, or Des Moines, or DFW!! Doesn't that seem a little broad? I'd be more impressed if they scaled back the TOR:CON range to a 15 mile radius.
And at what point do we get to see the Flying Monkeys?? Is that TOR:CON 10 with ground zero at YOUR house?