Didn't know they upgraded the risk in the Omaha/Lincoln area! Knew they had a bullseye over central Kansas earlier this week. The NWS is practically saying a tornado will happen in those two bullseye areas. That doesn't happen very often.
Thanks for posting this Cornfield Country. I was going to post something in the Cafe but clearly this is the better forum.
A day 2 high risk is something that has only been issued one other time. The other time there was a deadly tornado outbreak in Tennessee and Alabama area. While there is still uncertainty about coverage of severe storms there is high level of confidence that a significant severe weather event will unfold tomorrow afternoon and evening. There is a lot of population at risk tomorrow. Omaha, Lincoln (and the spring game) through KC and down the I35 corridor including Tulsa, OKC to Wichita Falls.
It's never a bad time to just know and understand what to do and where to go if or when one needs to take action to protect oneself.
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young
Has anyone heard a recent weather update? I have a 4 and a 5 year old that I was going to take to the game tomorrow. I'm not crazy about risking it if we're going to have severe thunderstorms though.
What does this map basically say about our chances for severe weather and the possible timing?
...CNTRL NEB INTO WRN IA... A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP FORCE MORNING RAIN AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY BEHIND THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING JUST TO THE W...AND A BROAD WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOWS IN PLACE...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED AND RH LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY SHELTERED AS WELL...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRONG TORNADOES. CELLS WOULD LIKELY FORM OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE HIGH RISK AREA WHERE HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THEN WOULD PROCEED RAPIDLY NEWD WITH AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. THE NRN EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES.
So, looks like morning rain and storms, then clearing or partial clearing to allow for development in the afternoon to evening hours. The "high" section of the above indicates there is a 60% or greater chance of sever weather occurring within any given 25 mile point. This is a rare occurrence, happening only a few times every year.
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