Anything over that "budget" is an oversigning situation. Seisay should count against 2011 class, so remove him from the equation of this year's class. (Minnesota signed 31 players, including 6 mid-term jucos that count against last year's class, by the way) That means we have 16 players in this class RIGHT NOW. If our budget was 16, we are OK. If it's 17, we are one under right now.
All leaving players (Kerr, Okafor, Ward, Williams) have been accounted for, and that's WHY we have two extra scholarships at this point. Seisay is already on campus and counted in the scholarship numbers as well. I am counting Marrow as being on scholarship in 2012, by the way.
You have to notify the Big 10 office AND you have to tell them WHO is being oversigned. (If one of those players goes elsewhere, you can substitute another.) So, I'm not sure you can just tell the Big10 office you want to oversign 3 and leave it at that.
So, here is a hypothetical. Let's say our recruiting budget was 16 this year. We signed 17 players, Seisay counts against 2011, so we are at 16 and we have two schollies available. We know CJax is out there, so we notified the Big 10 of our intent to use the oversigning exemption. We list CJax as the oversignee. There's talk that there may be another one or two out there, so we tell them we are also anticipating oversigning Player X and Player Y also. Player X doesn't qualify. Player Y shows up, CJax qualifies. We have "oversigned" by 2, but we are net zero on available scholarships until some open up.
(this is all from what I understand thus far, so no absolute guarantee of accuracy)